Are you terrible when it comes to predictions? If so, I suggest a good profession for you: Predictions! I am serious.
Many thousands of people labor in this field. They get paid well. They produce reams of predictions. And from what I can see, most of them are wrong. And nobody seems to get fired when they are wrong. Think about this. This could be a pretty good deal for you.
Take the Federal Reserve. It has an army of guys who grind out predictions. They predict unemployment. And money flows. And savings rates. And GDP. And how many angels can squeeze onto the head of a pin. They pour forth stacks of data to support their predictions.
And over the last many years they have been wrong, wrong, wrong. And in their best years, wrong.
They have just proclaimed a bunch of new predictions. Put them into a big news release. Will the new batch improve their batting average?
Well, we know the Trumpers are likely to inject YUGE stimuli into our sleepy economy. But the Fed’s predictors now predict barely any improvement in the economy rate of growth.
Given their track record, this is good news. They are likely to be wrong and the economy will boom.
This is like taking a weatherman to the track. Whichever horses he bets on, you bet the other way.
Predictors wear dark glasses everywhere. Even to bed. Even in the cinema. Because they sport black eyes for their predictions.
Consider the last few years. Why, they mis-predicted Brexit. They got our economy wrong. They reckoned Jeb Bush had the nomination in the bag. Seven years ago they reckoned stocks would fall off a cliff. After falling off a cliff. (Stocks are up 200 percent since 2009.)
The whole Obama economic team laid an egg with their predictions. They predicted millions more new jobs than we have. They predicted far more growth in the economy than we have seen.
Meanwhile scientists and Al Gore predicted we would be fried by now. And drowning in rising tides. Which we wouldn’t mind. Because academic Paul Erlich predicted we would be starving by then anyway.
Just think. Thousands of guys work on these predictions. Thousands crunch the numbers and publish papers. I tell ya, this is a great industry to get into. You can’t go wrong by goin’ wrong. I like it.
Now if you are accurate with predictions you probably should look elsewhere for work. You would not be welcome in this group.
I imagine predictors do a lot of boasting over a few brews. “I got the election wrong by fifty electoral votes.”
“Hey, that’s nuthin! I got it wrong by 200 votes!”
“You guys are amateurs. I got it wrong by 400!”
Yes, I can see the ceremonies at the National Order of Prognosticators Emeritus (NOPE). I can see them handing out their annual awards.
“This year’s Nostradamus Medal goes to a man who told us bank savings accounts would be earning 6 percent this year…”
“And we bestow our Lifetime Honor this year to a man who has predicted twenty-five of the last two recessions…”
While we are on the subject, I wish to declare my predictions for the next ten years:
Our climate will change. The world will suffer a major earthquake. There will be at least one major hurricane. We will have a few unexpected deaths. We will have some major surprises. Everybody sooner or later will blame Trump for something. Bill Clinton will chase women. The CIA will fail to predict major events. The stock market will go up and down. And all of this will be the fault of George W. Bush.
There. I’ve just ruined my chances for getting into the Prognosticators Hall of Fame. I predict that will be true.
From Tom…as in Morgan.