Witnessing the future

We are witnessing something of great significance. In Iran.

I know, I know, enough of Iran already. But this is worth looking at.

First, letís look at one of the biggest lessons from wars over the centuries: Often the losers prepared for war with an eye toward the previous war. Often the winners prepared for a war with tactics and weapons never used before.

One example was the longbow. Able to pierce a knightís armor from 100 yards and more. The English trained thousands of bowmen. They let loose up to 15 arrows a minute. When massed and loosing, they rained death on armies far larger. On armies led by cross-bow men whose arrows fell short of the longbow archers. They felled legions of horses and the men who rode in on them.



The losers, with cross-bows, lances and horses, prepared for what had been traditional warfare. The winners won with a new type of warfare.

The same happened centuries later to the stodgy English redcoats. When they marched in tightly packed rows to put down the American rebellion. The colonial rebels popped out from behind trees and stone walls to pick off the redcoats. The English generals never expected such guerilla warfare.

Just as Americans never expected much of the guerilla warfare the Vietcong waged.

Just as our enemies never anticipated the drone warfare we carry out in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Precision strikes from unseen platforms in the sky.

Just as Saddam never expected bombs that would bore into the earth to find and destroy his underground bunkers.

Just as George Foreman never foresaw Muhammed Aliís rope-a-dope tactics.

Lately we have had news of explosions at military locations in Iran. A recent blast virtually wiped out its major missile-testing site. Along with many missile experts working there.

Someone has assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists the last few years.†Last year a highly sophisticated computer worm attacked Iranís main uranium producing facility.

Sabotage? The Iranians say yes. The Americans yawn. The Israelis shrug.

Consider: Some of the most astute computer wizards in the world work for Israel.† To me there is no doubt that Israel (perhaps with U.S. help) is brandishing the longbows of the 21st century.

It would not surprise me if Israel has developed electronic weaponry that will shut down Iran in a war. Weapons that will freeze their computers. Weapons that will snarl electrical transmission, cell phone use.

So many people expect that war between Israel and its enemies will be fought by old-fashioned means. Armies. Missiles. Bombs from planes. Artillery.

Cross-bows.

I suspect Israel will fight with weapons Iran has not anticipated. And that we have already had a glimpse of some of them. And that the glimpse we have had is a peek at how winners will fight wars in future.

Whether in business, love, boxing or warfare, always expect the unexpected. Yogi did.

From Tom ... as in Morgan.††††††††††††††††††

For more columns and for Tomís radio shows and new TV shows (and to write to Tom): tomasinmorgan.com.

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